Since I’m back as LCGOP Chair, this won’t be updated as much as I originally planned due to time commitments. I will be starting a long term numbers crunching project.
One of the projects I did on another site was titled “The Path to Win (or lose) Michigan.” It was a 25 part series that was done before the 2016 election to make the case that Michigan was not a “blue state” in the same vein as Illinois, California, or most of the Acela Corridor. It’s a state winnable for both parties. That was proven with 2016’s win for Trump.
Before the election I said the following.
I think Michigan is winnable for R candidates under three conditions.
- It is seriously contested with time and effort. Long term.
- A 83 county strategy is used. Long term.
- The right candidate with the right message is the nominee. Short and long term.
I didn’t mention much in that project about Trump, but compared five elections and separated the state by region. I learned much from that project about this state’s politics and grew an appreciation for Snyder’s campaign style and method.
The next step will be a project I will be putting up here. I’ve long chirped about an 83 county strategy. On my old blog I had an old county profile started. It hasn’t been updated in 10 years. It’s time to redo them. This will likely be finished at some time around 2021. I’d like to have it finished before the 2022 redistricting. Some election data will be easier to get than others.
Some of the data I have won’t be public. Some of it will be.