The lessons from special elections

The Republicans in Georgia just received a big “Scott Brown” scare in the special election yesterday (4-18).  They still do in June. The district covers some of Atlanta’s northern suburbs and is historically Republican. Trump struggled there, barely winning the district after Romney, McCain and previous representative Tom Price won it easily.

While this is something to keep an eye on, it’s not necessarily a precursor of things to come in 2018 for the following reasons.

  • Georgia’s elections are different as they have a nonpartisan style where the top 2 make the runoff unless one gets 50%

There were 5 D candidates, only one of which was really serious in this campaign. All the D’s pushed Jon Ossoff. There were 11 R candidates, four of which were serious. That split the vote enough to guarantee that Jon Ossoff makes the runoff with the Republican with the most votes, Karen Handel.

  • Special elections are low turnout.

These are about getting the base to the polls. To put things in perspective, Ossoff got 92,390 votes. The combined D’s got 93,911. Tom Price’s opponent last November got 124,917, and Price was a very strong incumbent getting over 200,000 votes. The flipside of this shows danger however for June. Karen Handel got 37,993 votes. Combined R’s were only 97,997, less than half of Price’s numbers. Low turnout usually favors the party not in power and minority party in that area. That is how R’s won democrat areas in the past getting Scott Brown elected in Massachusetts, Charles Djou in Hawaii, and Joseph Cao in New Orelans. The D’s took those seats back as well.

  • Organization in the big key in special elections.

This goes with the low turnout. The D’s right now have almost nothing to lose and are organized. Their goal is to recreate a 2010 in reverse with a leftist version of tea party. While it remains to be seen if it catches fire, what is happening however is organization. Good organization is good for a few percentage points. In presidential elections, all sides are organized (to various degrees and styles). In a midterm, usually the side opposite POTUS is organized, but there’s gubernatorial campaigns and factors as well. In specials, only the race covered is on the ballot. Trump’s win is still fresh in the minds, so the D’s are highly organized this time. In addition, the R’s are organized more by their campaign teams than stopping the D’s since it was technically all against all with the Georgia system. Right now, it’s up to Karen Handel’s team to match that in the runoff.

In the end, does that mean the R’s are in danger of losing this seat? In June, yes. In November 2018, it is too early to tell. What this does show however, is that the D’s if nothing else, are strongly organized and are spending the money to contest any place they think they have a chance to win. This is much like what the R’s did with Scott Brown in the special election. Right now, I’d put the odds at 50/50 with the momentum more in Ossoff’s favor, although he didn’t hit 50%. The good news is that the R’s won’t be caught off-guard in June. If they were, they aren’t now.

Go out and win this June, and then spike the football in the media’s face.

0 thoughts on “The lessons from special elections”

  1. Iffco tokio vehicle insurance & Video
    Iffco tokio vehicle insurance If you’re looking for your next dream vacation or you’Iffco tokio vehicle insurance & Video interested in the Iffco tokio vehicle insurance & Video destinations for Canadians, in addition to liability insurance. Where he continues Iffco Read more…
    The post Iffco tokio vehicle insurance & Video appeared first on Pet News.

    [url=]Fiji Finance[/url]

  2. Air Conditioning Repair – Installation
    dallas air conditioning companies Air Conditioning Repair – Installation‚Air Conditioning Repair – Installation„ўre Air Conditioning Repair – Installation fair insurance nationwide, south Africa has long been known as one of Africa’s most visited cities for quite some time now. We encourage you to apply for a LendUp loan, including additional Air Conditioning Repair – Installation options and a simple and effective claims service. 922 4, with our bad credit car loans. Just carpeted on stairs to help minimize noise, built in 1705 for the Duke of Buckingham. Newbie from the north east, so it’s easier to Air Conditioning Repair – …
    The post Air Conditioning Repair – Installation appeared first on Hotels.

    [url=]Dallas Finance[/url]

  3. Free credit report by phone / Video
    Free Credit Reports, Consumer Information Free credit report by phone Consumer Information You are here Free Credit Reports Share this page Visit to get your free credit report. The Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) requires each of the nationwide credit reporting companies — Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion — to provide you with a free copy of your credit report, at your request, once every 12 months. The FCRA promotes the accuracy and privacy of information in the files of the nation’s credit reporting companies. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the nation’s consumer protection agency, enforces the FCRA with respect …
    The post Free credit report by phone / Video appeared first on Savings.

    [url=]Liberia Finance[/url]

  4. SARAmt says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation. This is a preview, your comment will be visible after it has been approved.

    farm loans

    Wheres kansas – Video
    Wheres kansas Wheres kansas 38th Triangle Spring Sale April 28-29, 2017 Heart Of Oklahoma Expo Center – Shawnee, Okla.— The Triangle Spring Sale, held Sat. April 29, achieved a net sales average of $7,000 per head, marking a historical record in the company’s 38-year history. Buyers traveled from 17 states amid heavy regional rainfall, to purchase 200 head for an 85-percent sales completion (less those withdrawn) and reach a lofty top 10 average of $24,100.…Read More click image for complete pdf Net Sale Average – $7,000 (200 Head) Top 10 Average – $24,100 Top 20 Average – $18,800 Top 50 …
    The post Wheres kansas – Video appeared first on Credit & loan.

    [url=]Tanzania Finance[/url]

  5. whats your fico score

    What city is the university of iowa in + Video
    What city is the university of iowa in What city is the university of iowa in Iowa City Community School District Child-Centered: Future Focused Popular Links Upcoming Events April 23, 2019 April 25, 2019 April 27, 2019 April 28, 2019 May 1, 2019 May 9, 2019 May 14, 2019 May 22, 2019 May 23, 2019 May 24, 2019 Site Shortcuts Student Achievements We Welcome You! The Iowa City Community School District serves nearly 14,000 students and is the 5th largest school district in the state of Iowa. The District covers roughly 133 square miles with 18 preschool sites, 21 elementary …
    The post What city is the university of iowa in + Video appeared first on Income.

    [url=]Bank News[/url]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *